Ken McElroy

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This event is bringing together some of the sharpest investors, entrepreneurs, and macro minds in the world.

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2 days ago | [YT] | 6

Ken McElroy

We are sitting in an unusually narrow window right now. Commercial real estate values have come down 30 to 40 percent in a lot of markets.

Inflation is back at 3.8 percent. The 10-year Treasury is at 4.63. AI is starting to genuinely disrupt how businesses run.

Things are a little broken and pieces are on the floor, as I told Tarl on Wednesday, and that is exactly the environment where the real moves get made.

I have been through the 80s, the dot-com bust, and the GFC, and every single time, the operators who came out ahead were already moving while everyone else was waiting for confirmation.


The window I am talking about is a few years, maybe two. After that, the genie is out of the bottle.

Robert Kiyosaki, Jeff Snider, Tom Wheelwright, George gammon, and 50-plus operators who are actually buying, selling, and underwriting through this disruption right now.

The whole point of three days at the JW Marriott is to get the operators whose opinions actually move your decisions in the same room, in person, for three full days.


The room itself is the reason a lot of people keep coming back. Phil Ingram, who is presenting on AI this year, came as an attendee two years ago. That is how this works. The conversations you have between sessions tend to outlive the sessions themselves.



As for the price, tickets go up at midnight on Monday the 25th, and after that they will not be at this rate again. They will keep increasing the closer we get to August. If you are planning to be in the room, this is the cheapest the ticket is going to get.



You can grab yours here and use *KEN10* at checkout for the partner rate:

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3 days ago | [YT] | 30

Ken McElroy

If you're a multifamily LP and you've been getting quiet capital calls and softer-than-promised distributions, this is for you.

Here is what actually happened.

In 2020 and 2021, capital was easy. Anyone with a deck could raise. Operators bought assets on bridge debt at 4%. Penciled great. Distributions flowed.
Then the Fed raised. 4 → 5 → 6 → 7%. Bridge debt floats. Mortgage payments doubled.

Same building. Same tenants. Same submarket. Same on-site team. The interest rate moved and cash flow disappeared.

Then buyers solving to a cap rate said "I can't pay $10M for an asset that doesn't cash flow." So the $10M asset became $8M. Then $7M. Then $6M.
Across the multifamily space, that's a 30-40% repricing. Not because the asset broke. Because the math broke.

Now stack the second wave. There is a debt maturity wall in 2025 and 2026. Hundreds of billions in loans coming due on assets that have lost equity. Refinancing requires cash-in. Many operators can't.

That is the carnage.

Here is the opportunity inside it.

If you have fixed-rate debt, dry powder, and you are buying assets in real markets (not edge-of-town syndication darlings) at prices below replacement cost with a real value-add story, this is your window.

It does not stay open long.
in the last 12 months i've done over 500m in deals

And in August i'll walking through exactly which markets, which deal structures, which capital stacks, and which kinds of operators to be careful of

Limitless is August 14-16 in Phoenix. Price goes up Monday at midnight.
Code TheFed15 at limitlessexpo.com

5 days ago | [YT] | 23

Ken McElroy

when my dad passed away he left behind two things worth about the same amount at the time.

A life insurance policy worth $10,000.

A house he'd bought for $10,700.

my mom still has both today.

The insurance policy is still worth $10,000.

The house is worth $750,000.

My mom was a hairdresser. She was not a real estate investor. She did not time markets, study cap rates, or read Fed minutes. She just held a hard asset for 60 years while the dollar did what dollars do.

This is the entire point.

Inflation is not the enemy if you are positioned correctly. It is the engine.

When the Fed targets 2% and Walsh is publicly arguing for 3%, run the rule of 72. At 3% inflation, prices double every 24 years. Your cash in a savings account at 1% is losing about 2.8% of its purchasing power every year, compounding.

The question is not "will inflation go away."

The question is "what side of the inflation equation am I on."

If you are sitting in cash right now, you are on the wrong side. If you are in hard assets that move with the dollar (and ideally cash flow on top), you are on the right side.

This is what we're spending three days on in August. Not real estate specifically. Hard assets generally. Oil and gas. Gold and silver with Dana Samuelson and Mike Maloney. Timber, water, energy, and oil with Chris Martenson.

You don't have to pick just one. You should not pick just one.

Ticket price goes up Monday at midnight. Code TheFed15 holds the lower price plus drops all 50+ recordings from 2025 in your inbox the moment you check out.

limitlessexpo.com
Code TheFed15

6 days ago | [YT] | 49

Ken McElroy

Quick gut check.

How many of your underwrites in the last 12 months had some version of "and when rates come back down" baked into the math?


Tarl said something on a call with Ken this week that I haven't been able to shake.
"The Fed is not your business partner."


Because here's what's actually happening.


CPI just printed at 3.8%. Highest since 2023. 10-year yield at 4.63%, highest since February. Bond yields near 2007 levels.


Powell is out. Kevin Walsh is in. Walsh has publicly said the Fed is too focused on inflation and he'd be fine with 3%. Trump is screaming for cuts.


And it doesn't matter.


Walsh cannot cut into 3.8% CPI without torching his credibility on day one. UBS said it plainly: he'd prefer lower rates, but inflation is high enough that cutting would raise questions about his inflation-fighting credibility.


Translation: higher for longer. Through 2026.


So the operators who survive this stretch are not the ones waiting.

They're the ones who already adjusted. Buying below replacement. Fixed-rate debt only. Forced equity through the rehab, not hoped equity through a rate cut.


The deals that broke in the last three years were not bad real estate deals.
They were bad math.


If you want to be in the room with the people sorting this out in real time, the Limitless tickets get more expensive Monday at midnight.


Code TheFed15 before then gets you 15% off, all 50+ sessions from last year's event (instant download, the second you check out),

and entry to win a Rich Dad Poor Dad signed by Robert himself.


Tickets here: limitlessexpo.com

6 days ago | [YT] | 22

Ken McElroy

going live in 35 minutes you are not going to want to miss it
youtube.com/live/EmIDKJu5PSs?feature=share

1 week ago | [YT] | 8

Ken McElroy

The biggest multifamily reset since 2008 is happening right now, and most investors are sitting it out.

They're sitting on the sidelines. Waiting for the bottom. Waiting for "things to make sense."

Meanwhile, My Company has been actively buying hundreds of millions of dollars of multifamily real estate over the last year, because the deals showing up on our desk look exactly like what we saw in 2008 and 2009.
Let me give you a real example.

A few weeks ago, a 278-unit property in Texas hit my desk. Lender-owned. Back to the bank.
5% occupancy.
That's not a typo. Out of 278 units, 13 were occupied.

In 2022, that property was appraised at $45 million. Renovated. Good location. Good market.
Today, we just bid on it for $8 to $10 million.

And the lender told me there are two more just like it in that same market.

This isn't 2008 in a single-family sense. Homeowners aren't losing their houses this time.

This is a multifamily-specific reset, and here's what actually happened:

Inflation peaked at 9.1% in June 2022

The Fed jacked rates to fight it

Mortgage payments on these properties doubled

Operators who never verified income, never checked expenses, never fixed their debt, ran out of cash flow
They stopped paying for capex, stopped paying employees, stopped turning units

Occupancy collapsed
Lenders watch-listed them
Now the lenders are taking them back

A lot of these "operators" weren't even operators. They were capital raisers. They had no idea what they were looking at when they walked the property. So when things broke, they had no playbook to fix it.
That's where we are. Right now. In real time.

Here's the math on a deal like this 278-unit:

Buy for: ~$10M
Renovation: ~$8M
Negative cash flow during the 2-year reposition: ~$2M
All-in: ~$20M
Stabilized value (today's market, not projected): ~$45M

This is exactly what we did in 2008, 9, 10, 11, and 12. Buy below replacement cost. Fix what's broken. Don't project.

Just get the property to where the market is today. If the market improves, that's upside. If it doesn't, the math still works.

On May 20th, Torl Yarbor and I are doing a free live breakdown of exactly what we're seeing right now.
We'll walk through:

How we're underwriting in this environment
Why bridge debt maturities are forcing the next 18-24 months of opportunity
What we think the timeline looks like from here

you can sign up here web.limitlessfinancialexpo.com/home-fed-b

2 weeks ago | [YT] | 68

Ken McElroy

Id highly recommend watching this video i just made

2 weeks ago | [YT] | 7

Ken McElroy

Just got back from Berkshire Hathaway annual meeting

Here's what nobody's reporting:

Buffett spent the entire day talking about businesses he owns. Insurance. Energy. Rail. Apple (which they cut by 75%, still holding $62B). He talked about $400B in cash sitting in treasuries waiting for valuations to make sense.

He never once talked about real estate.


I went down the rabbit hole when I got home. Asked Claude, ChatGPT, to find a single instance where Buffett addressed depreciation, the tax shield, or the cost basis advantage of owning hard assets.

Nothing.

Every argument he makes against real estate is pre-tax. Every single one.

But here's what stopped me cold:

Berkshire is one of the biggest real estate companies in America. They just don't own the buildings.
Walk through what they actually own:

Clayton Homes, manufactures the homes
Vanderbilt Mortgage + 21st Mortgage, finances the homes

CapMark + Berkadia, #1 Fannie/Freddie lender, 3rd largest HUD lender in the country

GEICO, insures the homes
Berkshire Hathaway HomeServices, brokers the transactions

He owns the manufacturing, the financing, the insurance, and the transaction. He just won't be the landlord.

Why?

Because his investors don't want to be active. They want to hand over a check and let the Oracle work.

The Berkshire model requires passive capital, so the playbook he sells has to be passive, even though he's quietly positioned at every chokepoint of the housing economy.

That's the insider game.

Here's what it means for you:

The most disciplined investor of our lifetime is sitting on $400B and calling the market "a church with a casino attached." He's not deploying. He's waiting.

Multifamily right now:

Cap rates have moved from 4 to 6

Interest rates still elevated

Occupancies down

Valuations down

This is the setup he's positioned for. It's the setup you should be positioned for too.

Build the cash. Build the team. Underwrite every deal that crosses your desk. You don't have to deploy today, but you do have to be ready when the right one lands.

Greg Abel said one line on stage that I keep coming back to:

"Decentralized operators win."

That's the whole thesis. Buffett is centralized, he needs Main Street's money to invest at scale. You don't.

One deal, one market, a small disciplined team, that's how you outperform him in your own backyard.

The opportunity isn't to invest with Buffett.

It's to do what he's actually doing, and capture the part he leaves on the table.


On May 20, we are going to sit down for two hours to walk through what the Fed transition means for interest rates, how the rate environment is reshaping real estate and debt, and where serious investors are positioning their capital in response
you can sign up here
web.limitlessfinancialexpo.com/home-fed

2 weeks ago | [YT] | 83

Ken McElroy

who is coming to limitless expo this year?
www.limitlessexpo.com/

3 weeks ago | [YT] | 9