Investing Talk Podcast

SpaceX is looking to launch the largest IPO in history this June, eyeing a valuation of up to $1.75 trillion. They plan to trade on the Nasdaq under the ticker SPCX, and the regulatory timeline is moving quickly.

One of the most notable details is that reports say SpaceX is setting aside up to 30% of the stock just for retail investors (everyday individuals), which is significantly higher than a standard offering.

Dates to remember:

June 4: The big pitch to investors begins.

June 11: The official price per share is set.

June 12: Trading could begin.

Are you planning to buy into the offering, or will you be watching from the sidelines? Let me know in the comments.

(Disclaimer: Timelines can change, so verify with the SEC prospectus before investing.)

4 days ago | [YT] | 0

Investing Talk Podcast

Broadcom ($AVGO) Earnings Report and Its Impact on the AI Sector (e.g., $LITE, $NBIS)

Broadcom's earnings report itself was "better than expected." Revenue was $18.02 billion (up 28% year-over-year), and earnings per share were $1.95, both figures beating market expectations.
However, the stock price fell by 11.64%, dragging down the entire AI-related sector.
First, it's important to clarify one point: $AMZN's Trainium, $MSFT's Maia, and most crucially, $GOOGL's TPU V7 (Ironwood), are all scaled and implemented through Broadcom.

Therefore, companies like $ALAB (-13.2%), $CRDO (-5.11%), $LITE (-12.23%), $TSM (-3.71%), and $COHR (-9.25%) are essentially direct beneficiaries of TPU/ASIC expansion and are highly related to Broadcom's supply chain.

Why did $AVGO drop?
The reasons can be divided into three points, but only one is truly important.
First, some technical factors: For example, changes in tax rates affecting EPS models, or the increasing proportion of customized AI chips leading to an apparent "compression of gross margins" on the books. These are more about accounting presentation issues, similar to when $META dropped after earnings due to a one-time tax issue, which didn't affect the long-term logic.
Second, and the most core reason: The order backlog expectations fell short.
Broadcom's guidance was: AI-related order backlog of approximately $73 billion over the next 18 months.

But prior to this, the market had implicitly priced in over $80 billion, mainly based on rumors about large-scale purchases of $GOOGL TPUs by Anthropic and Meta.
The issue is that the market overlooked a key detail: This $73 billion is the "minimum contractual guarantee for signed orders," not the upper limit.
It doesn't mean that cloud vendors like Google and Amazon will slow down their orders; it's just the currently confirmed portion.

Why call this a "pricing misalignment" rather than a fundamentals issue?
This round of selling looks more like: Algorithmic trading + short-term "AI bubble" sentiment triggering indiscriminate selling.
Some analysts believe that AI revenue recognition will be more front-loaded, so the backlog on the books after Q4 may appear reduced. But this doesn't represent a decline in demand; instead, it may mean that actual 2026 revenue is more likely to fall in the $55-60 billion range, rather than the market's previous expectation of $50 billion.

Summary:
The logic that hyperscale cloud vendors are using ASICs to reduce dependence on $NVDA has not changed.
$AVGO, along with supply chain companies like $COHR, SK Hynix, $MU, $VRT, and $LITE, remain direct beneficiaries.
This backlog guidance is not bad news; it's a misunderstanding of the meanings of "minimum guarantee" and "order cycles."
If ASIC demand really slowed down, it would theoretically benefit $NVDA more, but we saw GPU/data center-related companies like $CRWV, $SMCI, $NBIS, and $NVDA also drop by 5%+, indicating this was a typical indiscriminate sell-off.
The AI sector has once again been hit by "bubble sentiment," rather than a change in industry trends. An entire swath of AI stocks dropping 10-12% in a short time looks more like an opportunity after emotional release, rather than risk exposure.

5 months ago | [YT] | 5

Investing Talk Podcast

Why a Bullish Market is Coming Soon?

- This dip is seen as temporary—a "speed bump" in a strong rally, not a sign of recession, so investors will buy back in.
- Strong US economy with good GDP growth, high consumer spending, and big investments in AI to boost companies.
- Federal Reserve cutting interest rates to make borrowing cheaper, helping businesses and markets grow.
- Historical patterns: November is often the best month for stocks, and December has "Santa Claus" rallies.
- Upcoming fiscal help like tax cuts and more rate cuts expected to push stocks higher into 2026.
- Company profits are growing, and shifts to more tech-focused markets justify high prices for longer bull runs.
- End of shutdowns usually leads to stock gains in the months after, based on past data.

6 months ago | [YT] | 4

Investing Talk Podcast

The Dow Jones Industrial Average declined by approximately 800 points today, with notable losses in technology stocks such as Tesla and Nvidia. This has contributed to a broader sense of unease among investors. However, based on my review of current economic indicators and historical trends, we believe this pullback represents a temporary correction rather than a fundamental shift. Below are outline key reasons for maintaining a constructive outlook, while emphasizing the importance of conducting your own due diligence.

1/ Temporary Nature of the Pullback: The market has retreated from recent all-time highs, driven in part by profit-taking among investors. Analysts describe this as a minor setback within a longer-term upward trend, with no immediate signs of an economic recession. It is essential to review broader market indices and sector performance to contextualize these movements—markets rarely advance without periodic corrections.

2/ Robust Economic Fundamentals: The U.S. economy continues to demonstrate strength, with solid GDP growth, resilient consumer spending, and significant capital inflows into artificial intelligence and related technologies. While certain tech sectors are experiencing volatility, these investments are poised to drive future productivity gains. Investors should examine recent economic reports, such as those from the Bureau of Economic Analysis, to verify these trends.

3/ Supportive Monetary Policy: The Federal Reserve has implemented interest rate reductions to lower borrowing costs, which should facilitate business expansion and employment growth. Looking ahead, potential tax reforms and additional rate adjustments in 2026 could provide further stimulus. It is advisable to monitor Federal Open Market Committee minutes and policy statements for insights into future actions.

4/ Historical Precedents: Data indicates that November has historically been one of the strongest months for equity performance, often followed by positive momentum in December. Additionally, markets tend to recover following resolutions to fiscal uncertainties, such as recent government shutdowns. Reviewing historical market data from sources like the S&P 500 index over similar periods can help assess these patterns.

5/ Valuation Considerations and Opportunities: While valuations in AI-related stocks have expanded, underlying corporate earnings growth supports a sustained bull market, particularly as the economy transitions toward technology-driven sectors. This environment may present buying opportunities during dips. Conduct thorough analysis of price-to-earnings ratios and earnings forecasts from reliable financial databases to evaluate specific investments.

We are not advocating for indiscriminate buying—always perform comprehensive due diligence, including reviewing financial statements, analyst reports, and diversification strategies. If you are experiencing fear, uncertainty, or doubt, consider stepping back to assess the bigger picture: a resilient economy, favorable policies, and seasonal tailwinds suggest potential for recovery. What are your perspectives on this? Are you adjusting portfolios based on these factors, or holding steady?

6 months ago | [YT] | 1

Investing Talk Podcast

Tell me what's your next play in sector?

6 months ago | [YT] | 3

Investing Talk Podcast

Bitcoin has just hit its ATH pass thru $100,000 half an hour ago. #BTC

1 year ago | [YT] | 1