Indraanil Guha

Coming Tomorrow: SO WHAT'S NEXT FOR NIFTY? MELT-UP OR CRASH?

In this video, I discuss threadbare my market outlook at this stage in the light of various challenges facing the Indian economy and markets, including the conflict in the Middle East, aggravated selling by FIIs, surging crude oil prices, and surging inflation. My dear friends, I know this is a video that so many of you have been eagerly looking forward to, and I assure you what I'm going to present is going to be worth the wait!

This video will go live tomorrow (Sunday, 14-Jun-2026) at 12 noon!
(This vide was originally slated to go live today. However the editing and post-production processing of the video is taking longer than expected, hence we were not able to publish the video today. I and my team sincerely apologize for the delay)

1 month ago | [YT] | 21

Indraanil Guha

RETIREMENT PLANNING IS A SERIOUS MATHEMATICAL EXERCISE

And it needs to be freed from the clutches of types who think you need 40 cr to retire in India and/or 70 lakh CTC is middle to lower-middle class in today’s India.

@_soniashenoy asked @sandeepjethwani on her podcast - I’m almost 40 and I’ve an expense of around 2 lakhs a month. How much would I need to have in assets by the time I’m 60?

@sandeepjethwani's reply - 40 crores!

This response is NOT just so so so misleading, it also has absolutely NO basis in mathematics!

So here’s what the real numbers would look like if someone actually cares to run the numbers:

Assuming a life expectancy of 90, inflation of 6% pa, and investment corpus growing at 12% pa, you need 11.39 cr (NOT 40 cr) by the time you turn 60 to be able to generate today’s equivalent of 2 lakhs per month thru your retirement (and you would have still NOT dipped into your principal)!

If you want to make it even more conservative, then with a return of 12% pa up to retirement and FD-like returns of 7% pa thereafter, you still need no more than 22.6 cr!

Throw in taxes, and still the required corpus can’t go beyond 25 cr!

How @sandeepjethwani could come up a figure of 40 cr totally defeats me!

You can refer to my excel-based retirement calculator to verify these numbers and check your own FIRE number (you would need to enable excel macros to use this retirement calculator)

docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/14uK_BXEeZQezGFg1kL…


#retirementplanning #financialfreedom #fitindia #PersonalFinance #retirementgoals #WealthBuilding #FireIndia #MoneyMatters #InvestSmart #RetireRich #financialliteracy #personalfinancetips #financialfreedom #mutualfunds #earlyretirement #passiveincome #Stocks #stockmarketeducation #retirementgoals #InvestmentStrategies #wealthcreation #METACAPS #indraanilguha

2 months ago | [YT] | 6

Indraanil Guha

DIDN’T I TELL YOU THIS WAR IS DRAWING TOWARDS AN END?

This is what I wrote about a week back… as I had predicted then (and is starting to play out now), this war in the Middle-East is drawing towards an end!

To summarize what I had written back then, the determinant of when this war would come to an end is NOT whether and when Iran is militarily defeated, NOT how many Shaheed drones Iran is still left with, NOT even how high oil prices will go!

The real decider was always going to be THE BOND MARKET, or to be more specific, the extent of VOLATILITY IN THE BOND MARKET – something which can actually be tracked using this index called the MOVE INDEX.

A MOVE Index reading of 100+ is considered to be representative of very high volatility… a reading of 120+ means dangerously high volatility!

The last time things went out of hand was on 2-Apr-2025, which is when President Trump unveiled his sweeping tariffs on almost every trading partner of US.

This led to an instant spike in volatility in the bond market and the MOVE Index soared to a level of 140 within a matter of days!

And guess what – Trump immediately TACOed!

Within just 7 days of unveiling the tariffs, he had to beat a hasty retreat on 9-Apr-2025, which is when he announced he would be postponing the implementation of tariffs by 90 days!

That’s what it took for the bond market to back off from its revolt and for the MOVE Index to finally retreat back below 100!

And that’s why I had predicted little over a week back (when the MOVE Index came perilously close to 100, closing at 95 on 12-Mar-2026) that the timelines of this war will be ultimately decided by when the MOVE Index crosses 100, and eventually 120!

The MOVE Index finally did go past the first threshold of 100 on Friday (20-Mar-2026), closing the day at 108.84!

And that’s it! Looks like it was enough for Trump to start pulling off yet another TACO

After threatening to bomb Iran’s power installations if Iran fails to reopen the Straits of Hormuz within 48 hours, Trump has now unilaterally announced a 5-day pause in airstrikes!

Make no mistakes, this war is drawing towards an end!

I have explained this thesis in greater details in this recent video:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=D2dhq...

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3 months ago | [YT] | 26

Indraanil Guha

THE WAR IN THE MIDDLE-EAST IS DRAWING TOWARDS AN END!

And no, it’s NOT because Iran has been militarily defeated, or that Iran on its part is close to running out of Shaheed drones.

It’s because the bond market will soon force the hands of President Trump to end this war! Let me explain…

Notwithstanding the might of the greatest military apparatus the world has ever seen, one thing that every US President still fears is a REVOLT BY THE BOND MARKET!

And when the bond market revolts, it expresses itself by way of volatility of the bond market shooting up.

And there’s an index that tracks volatility of the US government bond market… it’s called the MOVE Index.

The last time the bond market revolted was on 2-Apr-2025, which is when President Trump unveiled his sweeping tariffs on almost every trading partner of US.

This is something that rattled the US government bond market, and the MOVE index shot up from under 100 to 140 within a matter of days.

A MOVE Index reading of 100+ is considered to be representative of very high volatility… a reading of 120+ means dangerously high volatility!

So what happened after that that?

Well, the President was forced to immediately back down!

Within just 7 days of unveiling the tariffs, the President had to beat a hasty retreat on 9-Apr-2025, which is when he had to announce he would be postponing the implementation of tariffs by 90 days!

That’s what it took for the bond market to back off from its revolt and for the MOVE Index to finally retreat back below 100.

BTW, the MOVE Index and stock market have a very tight but inverse relationship (refer to the chart illustrating the historical trend of the MOVE Index v/s NIFTY)

And that’s why, as the MOVE Index retreated, stocks immediately took off!

But guess what - we are at the cusp of a re-run of the same movie all over again!

The extended closure of the Straits of Hormuz has sent oil price north of $100/barrel, in turn driving up inflation expectations around the world.

And rising inflation expectations, as they always do, have sent bond yields spiraling…

US 10-year yields are up from 3.97% before the start of the war to 4.28% currently… that’s a jump of more than 30 bps in just two weeks!

And such a sharp spike in yields is now helping push up the MOVE Index, which is up from a level of just 73 before the start of the war to its current level of 95!

And rest be assured, if the MOVE Index continues to pick momentum (which I suspect it will) and continues its climb to 100+, and eventually 120+, the President will be once again forced to back down, and figure out a way to end this war without any further ado.

I suspect that will take the shape of form of the President abruptly and unilaterally proclaiming victory and announcing the withdrawal of US forces and military assets from the region one fine morning (or in the middle of the night) on Truth Social!

The coming days are going to be interesting!

BTW, the President backing off would almost certainly mean “achhe din” once again for stocks!

I have explained this thesis in greater details in this recent video:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=D2dhq...

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3 months ago | [YT] | 42

Indraanil Guha

WILL THE WAR SINK THE NIFTY? | NIFTY-50 CRASH | INDRAANIL GUHA ENGLISH

We are currently in the middle of one of the most serious escalations of conflict in the Middle East in many, many years. This conflict has sent oil prices spiraling from a level of under $60 per barrel before the start of the conflict to more than $100 per barrel currently.

There has been no comparable spike in oil prices since the outbreak of the Russia–Ukraine War in 2022. What does this mean for the global economy and for equity markets, especially here in India?

Can this ongoing conflict and the surge in oil prices push the US economy into a recession, potentially triggering large drawdowns in equity markets around the world? Or is there still hope for a quick resolution to this conflict, which could lead to a strong rebound in global equity markets once a ceasefire is announced?

In this video, I will explore the various possible outcomes of this war using a unique methodology. Instead of looking for signals from the equity market or the oil market, I will attempt to decipher the signals coming from the bond market.

I assure you that this is going to be an eye-opening video, so please make sure to watch it till the very end without skipping.

4 months ago | [YT] | 2

Indraanil Guha

LIVE SESSION WITH INDRAANIL GUHA IN HINDI | SUNDAY, 08-MAR-2026 | 4:00 PM (INDIA TIME)

Join us for an exclusive live session with Mr. Indraanil Guha, where he will share his insights on how he sees equity markets shaping up from here in the weeks and months ahead, especially in the light of tensions flaring up all over again in the Middle East.

During the live session, Mr. Guha will also be unveiling the details of AlphaSIP® 2.0 – our flagship investment strategy that we are re-launching after an extensive overhaul (we will start accepting registrations for AlphaSIP® 2.0 for a limited period after the live session concludes… registration window for AlphaSIP® 2.0 will close on 31-Mar-2026)

The interactive session will start at 4:00 PM (India time) on Sunday, 08-Mar-2026, and is expected to last approximately 2 hours. The session will be conducted on Zoom, and will also be streamed live on YouTube.

There are no charges for attending the session; however, registration is mandatory if you wish to participate. To attend, please register now at:
metacaps.ai/register-for-live-session-08032026

There are only 100 slots available for the live session, and the Zoom meeting link will be sent only to those who are amongst the first 100 to register! So hurry up, and register as soon as you can!

Do not miss this opportunity to gain a sneak peek into Mr. Guha’s perspective and engage with him live as he shares how he sees equity and bond markets trending from here.

We look forward to seeing you all on Sunday at 4:00 Pm

4 months ago | [YT] | 4

Indraanil Guha

Due to multiple requests to conduct the session on another day so that it does not clash with Holi, we have decided to reschedule our upcoming live session.

We truly appreciate the overwhelming response and your enthusiasm to attend. To ensure maximum participation and convenience for everyone, the session will now be held on a revised date.

We will be announcing the new date very soon.

Stay tuned — and wishing you and your family a very Happy Holi!

4 months ago | [YT] | 7

Indraanil Guha

LIVE SESSION WITH INDRAANIL GUHA IN HINDI | TUESDAY, 03-MAR-2026 | 6:00 PM (INDIA TIME)

Join us for an exclusive live session with Mr. Indraanil Guha, where he will share his insights on how he sees equity markets shaping up from here in the weeks and months ahead, especially in the light of tensions flaring up all over again in the Middle East.

During the live session, Mr. Guha will also be unveiling the details of AlphaSIP® 2.0 – our flagship investment strategy that we are re-launching after an extensive overhaul (we will start accepting registrations for AlphaSIP® 2.0 for a limited period after the live session concludes… registration window for AlphaSIP® 2.0 will close on 31-Mar-2026)

The interactive session will start at 6:00 PM (India time) on Tuesday, 03-Mar-2026, and is expected to last approximately 2 hours. The session will be conducted on Zoom, and will also be streamed live on YouTube.

There are no charges for attending the session; however, registration is mandatory if you wish to participate. To attend, please register now at:
metacaps.ai/register-for-live-session-03032026

There are only 100 slots available for the live session, and the Zoom meeting link will be sent only to those who are amongst the first 100 to register! So hurry up, and register as soon as you can!

Do not miss this opportunity to gain a sneak peek into Mr. Guha’s perspective and engage with him live as he shares how he sees equity and bond markets trending from here.

We look forward to seeing you all on Tuesday at 6:00 PM! Happy Holi..

4 months ago (edited) | [YT] | 2

Indraanil Guha

LIVE SESSION WITH INDRAANIL GUHA | SUNDAY, 01-MAR-2026 | 5:00 PM (INDIA TIME)

Join us for an exclusive live session with Mr. Indraanil Guha, where he will share his insights on how he sees equity markets shaping up from here in the weeks and months ahead, especially in the light of tensions flaring up all over again in the Middle East.

During the live session, Mr. Guha will also be unveiling the details of AlphaSIP® 2.0 – our flagship investment strategy that we are re-launching after an extensive overhaul (we will start accepting registrations for AlphaSIP® 2.0 for a limited period after the live session concludes… registration window for AlphaSIP® 2.0 will close on 31-Mar-2026)

The interactive session will start at 5:00 PM (India time) on Sunday, 01-Mar-2026, and is expected to last approximately 2 hours. The session will be conducted on Zoom, and will also be streamed live on YouTube.

There are no charges for attending the session; however, registration is mandatory if you wish to participate. To attend, please register now at:
metacaps.ai/register-for-live-session-01032026

There are only 100 slots available for the live session, and the Zoom meeting link will be sent only to those who are amongst the first 100 to register! So hurry up, and register as soon as you can!

Do not miss this opportunity to gain a sneak peek into Mr. Guha’s perspective and engage with him live as he shares how he sees equity and bond markets trending from here.

We look forward to seeing you all on Sunday at 5:00 PM!

4 months ago | [YT] | 9

Indraanil Guha

FED IS NOW BACK TO MONEY PRINTING (QE)!

So the Fed did finally blink! Not only did the Fed cut Fed Funds Rate yesterday by 25 basis points, Chairman Powell also announced that the Fed will start “technical buying of treasury bills to manage market liquidity” from 12-Dec-2025. This amounts to nothing but the Fed going back to Quantitative Easing (or money printing), even though the Fed will never admit this is nothing but good ol’ QE!

This is something that I had specifically predicted in my most recent video, which I had published on 6-Dec-2025. In that video, I had clearly predicted that – given the severe liquidity squeeze that we are witnessing right now, and with the RRP being fully depleted, it’ll NOT be enough for the Fed to just stop QT in order to address the current liquidity squeeze; instead the Fed will have no choice but to go back to QE very soon!

Here’s the video I had published last week:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HfJZY...


It’s a rather long video… if you haven’t had the chance to go thru the full video, do watch at least for 5 minutes from 49:45 onwards!

7 months ago | [YT] | 8