Gerhard - Bitcoin Strategy

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The S&P 500 going up over 150 years does not automatically make it the best place for your money at every moment in time.

This chart shows the SPX on a 3-week timeframe, plotted on a logarithmic scale, stretching from 1871 to 2026. The log scale is important: it compresses exponential growth so that early decades remain visible and comparable to recent ones.

The long-term trend is unmistakably upward. But zoom into specific stretches and the picture changes. The index spent extended periods moving sideways or declining in real purchasing-power terms, most visibly around the 1929 to 1936 range and again around the 2001 to 2011 period.

The broader point is that the S&P 500 underperforming the money supply by more than 70% during certain cycles, while gold outperformed the money supply by nearly 300% in those same windows, suggests allocation decisions deserve active thought.

Paying down a mortgage, holding gold, or rotating assets at particular points in a cycle may produce better outcomes than a passive, permanent equity position. Cycles exist. Recognizing them is the work.

#invest #makemoney #Investing

1 hour ago | [YT] | 2

Gerhard - Bitcoin Strategy

▶ Watch the full video: https://youtu.be/FU-Zg72q9LU

The S&P 500 looks like a reliable store of wealth, until you adjust it for money supply growth.

This chart plots the S&P 500 divided by US M2 money supply, going back to 1960. The dotted horizontal line marks the long-run average ratio. What it reveals is that in nominal dollar terms, stocks appear to climb steadily, but relative to the expanding money supply, the picture changes dramatically.

The highlighted zone runs from 2000 to 2009, covering both the dot-com collapse and the global financial crisis. Over that 236-bar, 3,290-day window, the ratio fell 73.17%, a decline of 2.42 units. That is not a short-term dip. It is a nine-year period where equities, measured against money creation, lost nearly three quarters of their real purchasing power.

The chart also shows two extended sideways stretches, one lasting over 13 years and another over 14 years, where the ratio went essentially nowhere.

The question this raises is straightforward. Stocks do appreciate long-term in nominal terms, but does holding the S&P 500 actually preserve wealth when measured against the money being created around it?

#SP500 #Inflation #Investing

7 hours ago | [YT] | 2

Gerhard - Bitcoin Strategy

▶ Watch the full video: https://youtu.be/FU-Zg72q9LU

Concentration risk is often cited as a flaw in equity investing, yet the data suggests the opposite strategy has quietly crushed the benchmark for decades.

This chart tracks a simple back-test called the S&P 3, the blue line, against the S&P 500, the orange line. The rules are straightforward: at year-end, identify the three largest US stocks by market cap, buy them in proportion to their weighting, hold for one year, then repeat. No active stock-picking, no complex models.

Starting from $100 invested in 1990, the S&P 3 reached $1,159 by 2007 while the S&P 500 stood at $608 at that same point. By 2024 the gap had widened dramatically, with the S&P 3 approaching $40,000 on a logarithmic scale versus roughly $4,000 to $5,000 for the benchmark.

The tooltip for 2007 shows the three holdings at that time were XOM at 44.4%, GE at 33.3%, and C at 22.2%, illustrating how the composition shifts meaningfully across cycles.

The implied outperformance per year is stated as more than seven percentage points, compounded over 34 years. That is a remarkable gap worth understanding before dismissing concentration as inherently risky.

#SP500 #Stocks #Investing

14 hours ago | [YT] | 2

Gerhard - Bitcoin Strategy

Which asset would you rather hold for the next 4 years?

18 hours ago | [YT] | 2

Gerhard - Bitcoin Strategy

▶ Watch the full video: https://youtu.be/ci9auH-bFXY

Nine thousand days of context that most market commentary ignores.

This chart plots the Nasdaq 100 divided by the US money supply, meaning it strips out monetary debasement and shows whether US technology stocks are genuinely gaining purchasing power, not just nominal price.

The horizontal blue line spans 648 bars, equivalent to 9,044 days, connecting the dot-com peak around the year 2000 to the point where the index recently reclaimed that same inflation-adjusted level. That is roughly 24 years for real value to recover and then push higher.

The takeaway is not that Nasdaq has failed. It is that when you measure assets against money creation rather than nominal dollars, the picture looks very different from headline index performance. A 6.8% expansion in the monetary base, as referenced in the accompanying analysis, quietly erodes purchasing power even when nominal prices rise.

For investors with a 20 to 30 year horizon, the long-term trend remains upward in real terms. But the journey, as this chart makes clear, demands patience that most participants simply do not have.

#tech #stonks #Investing

20 hours ago | [YT] | 0

Gerhard - Bitcoin Strategy

▶ Watch the full video: https://youtu.be/S6cAFe2V02M

I beat Bitcoin by 2% per month for 5 years

→ Stock picking is mostly an illusion
→ The real edge is in the ratio, not the price


#BitcoinStrategy #PairTrading #BitcoinAlpha #MacroInvesting

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22 hours ago | [YT] | 7

Gerhard - Bitcoin Strategy

▶ Watch the full video: https://youtu.be/ci9auH-bFXY

The NDX/SPX ratio tells you how much technology stocks are outperforming the broader market, and this 2-week chart stretches back to 1992 to put that question in full historical context.

The white channel running from the lower left to the upper right captures the long-run upward trend in the ratio. Two highlighted periods stand out. The purple box around the late 1990s marks the dot-com bubble peak and subsequent collapse. The blue box, spanning roughly 2013 to 2023, marks the most recent decade of tech leadership.

Over that 10-year window, the Nasdaq 100 outperformed the S&P 500 by approximately 62%, according to the measurement tool visible on screen, covering 254 bars and 3,550 days. Annualized, that works out to roughly 5% of alpha per year.

The practical implication raised here is that concentrating in the top three holdings within that period generated even higher outperformance, above 7.3% annualized, though with the corresponding caveat that any rotation away from AI-driven leadership could quickly reassign which names sit at the top.

#nasdaq #nasdaq100 #Investing

1 day ago | [YT] | 2

Gerhard - Bitcoin Strategy

▶ Watch the full video: https://youtu.be/ci9auH-bFXY

A concentrated two-stock portfolio has compounded far ahead of the broad index since 1990, and this backtest quantifies exactly how wide that gap has become.

The chart compares two strategies from 1990 through early 2026. The orange line is a standard S&P 500 index investment. The blue line is the "S&P 2," a portfolio that holds only the two largest S&P 500 constituents by market cap, rebalanced once per year. Today those two positions are Nvidia at roughly 53% and Apple at roughly 47%.

Both lines track close together through the 1990s and 2000s. The blue line begins separating meaningfully around 2015, crosses $10,000 near 2016, and accelerates sharply after 2018. By 2025 the S&P 2 approaches $45,000 on the chart, while the S&P 500 sits near $5,000, a difference of roughly nine times.

The key analytical point is not the recent spike alone. The S&P 2 shows consistent outperformance across most measured years, not just the last cycle. Annual rebalancing is the only active management required, keeping implementation friction low. Worth studying before dismissing concentration risk out of habit.

#stocks #stockmarket #Investing

1 day ago | [YT] | 3

Gerhard - Bitcoin Strategy

Test post - confirming wide charts now display full-width (bars top/bottom, no side crop). Both LEFT EDGE and RIGHT EDGE should be visible. Safe to delete.

1 day ago | [YT] | 2

Gerhard - Bitcoin Strategy

▶ Watch the full video: https://youtu.be/WdUrBBGzDFU

TAO measured against the broader altcoin market tells a more nuanced story than the USD price alone.

This chart plots TAOUSDT divided by the market cap of altcoins outside the top 10, scaled by 1,000,000,000, on a daily timeframe. Two sets of parallel trendlines are drawn: a wide descending channel capturing the long-term trend from mid-2024 through mid-2026, and a tighter horizontal channel framing the most recent range between roughly 15.50 and 18.50.

The key observation is structural. Even within an altcoin cohort that is already heavily inflationary, TAO has broadly underperformed. The ratio has made lower relative highs and lower relative lows across the visible history, pointing to persistent selling pressure that likely reflects TAO's own token emission schedule.

At current levels the ratio sits in the middle of its recent range, neither at an extreme low near 8.60 nor at the 20.00 resistance zone tested in late 2025. However, if negative momentum continues, the chart suggests TAO could underperform the rest of the altcoin market by approximately 39% before finding structural support.

#Bittensor #TAO #Crypto #Cryptocurrency #Investing

1 day ago | [YT] | 3