The Nerdy Ghambler

NFL season is officialy over so its on to just NBA bets!

tonight we've got 4 bets:

1. Pascal Siakam (Pacers) o24.5 pts+assists
2. Donte DiVincenzo (Knicks) o18.5 points
3. Johnathan Kuminga (Warriors) o2.5 assists
4. Zion Williamson (Pelicans) o21.5 points

heres why:

1. Pascal Siakam (Pacers) o24.5 pts+assists

Indiana takes on Charlotte tonight in a battle between 2 of the fastest pace team in the NBA, there should be a ton of points and assists on both sides of this one. This is Pascal's 3rd time playing the hornets this year. He is averaging 33 PAs vs them. He is averaging 28 this year, great bet here. If you want a ladder challenge starter here it is!


2. Donte DiVincenzo (Knicks) o18.5 points

In his last 10 games he is averaging 23 ppg. This is mainly because of injuries on the NY squad, they arent getting any healthier so Donte should continue his high output on offense again tonight. He has this line in 6 of his last 7.


3. Johnathan Kuminga (Warriors) o2.5 assists

Shoutout to my cousin who has taken this abunch of nights in a row, good for him also since Kuminga has hit this line in 5 of his last 6 games, several times doubling the line and/or hitting it at half time. play this to -130 or -135 if you want after that I would parlay 2+ assists with him also getting 15+ points, something he does night in and night out.



4. Zion Williamson (Pelicans) o21.5 points

Zion is averaging 24 ppg in his last 10 and scoring very naturally right now. This is his 4th game vs a incredibly depleted Memphis squad. this bet has hit 2 of 3 games and his one miss he played well under his regular minutes, I'll gladly take this with a guy averaging 24ppg vs one of the most injured squads in all of sports

2 years ago | [YT] | 4

The Nerdy Ghambler

Super Bowl Sunday is finally here!
My 4 favorite picks below:

1. Patrick Mahomes (Chiefs) longest rush o12.5 yds (-110 Bet365)

2. Isiah Pacheco (Chiefs) o64.5 total rush yds (-125 ESPNBet)

3. Isiah Pacheco (Chiefs) anytime TD scorer (-120 everywhere)

4. Christian McCaffrey alternates Parlay (+128 Fanduel)
a. TD scorer
b. 60+ yards rushing
c. 25+ yards receiving



Heres why:


1. Patrick Mahomes (Chiefs) longest rush o12.5 yds (-110 Bet365)

We are 8-2 on the year betting QB longest rush props. It is my favorite prop to bet on. We are 2-0 this year on betting Mahomes over in longest rush props specifically! Love em or hate em he shows up in big time games. This is obviously the biggest game for him this year. He went over this line last year in the super bowl and he went over this line in the super bowl a few years ago verse the 49ers. Expect him to go over again. The books expect him to get 4 carries today, he is over this line in 9 of 13 games when getting at least 4 carries!





2. Isiah Pacheco (Chiefs) o64.5 total rush yds (-125 ESPNBet)

In the last 3 months Pacheco has only gone under this line twice, both times were against the raiders. He is over it in 4 straight games which includes all 3 playoff games. He is averaging 85 yards per game in said playoffs by the way which is way way over this line and he faces a underperforming 49ers defense this post season, who has allowed runners over this mark in both playoff games by a large margin. he is expect 15 carries and he is 9-3 when recieving 14+ attempts!




3. Isiah Pacheco (Chiefs) anytime TD scorer (-120 everywhere)

Pacheco has really been stirring the offense recently. he has scored in all 3 payoff games this year. In fact in his last 7 games of the sesason pacheco has scored in 6 of em! Once again, he is expected 15 carries by all the sportsbook today. when he gets that line he has scored in 8 of 12 games!



4. Christian McCaffrey alternates Parlay (+128 Fanduel)
a. TD scorer
b. 60+ yards rushing
c. 25+ yards receiving


We are 2-0 this year on McCaffrey prop bets. McCaffrey averages 81 rush ypg, 31 rec ypg, and 1.2 TDs per game. Just be average today CMC, heck you can even be a little worse than average. He is over 60+ rush yards in 14 of 18 games. over 60+ rec yards in 14/18 games, and scored in 15 of 18 games this year. If the 49ers win today CMC must leave his mark and I expect if they win he went way over this lines. If they lose I I expect he still went over these lowered alternate lines because he has all year. Really all his career.

Who wins tonight?
NerdyGhamblers.

2 years ago (edited) | [YT] | 4

The Nerdy Ghambler

2 very nice bets for tonight.
Not to to many attractive games on today so I will be Trying something new today, excited for it:

I have two bets both parlays, both have dominated as of late espicially numero uno but according to the books play 2 is a bet more "safe":

1. SGP: Kawhi Leonard (LAC) and Trae Young (ATL) 25+ points (+134 Fanduel)
2. -121 5 Leg parlay on Fanduel (see below)

heres why I like them:



1. SGP: Kawhi Leonard (LAC) and Trae Young (ATL) 25+ points (+134 Fanduel)
This entire bet has hit in 5 straight games! You couldve turned 10$ into over 700$ in that one work week.


Kawhi has hit this in 5 straight games
he has hit this in 5 straight games vs Atlanta including all during his time as a Clipper (3 seasons)
Paul George is likely on a minutes restriction tonight and Leonard gets the joy of playing a horrible hawks defense

Trae has hit this in 5 straight games
he has done this in 7 of 9 verse LAC
He is averaging 27 ppg and gets to play the clippers while they are at the end of a road stretch



2. -121 5 Leg parlay on Fanduel (see below).
The legs are a combined 79 and 21 in the last 25 games.


a. Austin Reeves (Lakers) 10+ points
-hit in 21 of 25
-averaging 16 this year and 18 in the last 10. put up 16 vs CHA this year.

b. Mikal Bridges (Nets) 2+ assists


-hit in 20 of 25
-averages 4 apg and in his last 10. hit vs Warriors earlier this year.

c. Kawhi Leonard (Clippers) 20+ points
-Hit in 19 of 25
-averages 25 in last 10
-Hurting Paul George and plays horrible Hawks D

d. De'Aaron Fox (Kings) 20+ points
-hit in 20 of last 25
-averages 28 and got 28 vs Clevland

2 years ago | [YT] | 2

The Nerdy Ghambler

Back to the community tab! Just 1 bet tonight, it was the only one I love today and it should be familiar:


Suns to cover vs Atlanta:

2u: Suns -2.5 at Atlanta (-130 Everywhere)

We have hit this line over and over and over and cashed. Also always played for double units and we hit it for day 1 of the ladder a few days ago so I guess we run it back as ladder day 2 (slow and steady) and as double unit play.

Heres why I'm recommending it:

Books continue to doubt the suns but they take on the hawks who are actually under 500 at home vs the suns who are above 500 on the road but more than that the suns have been very hot recently unlike the Hawks. They are 2-4 in their last six. The suns are 9-2 in their last 11. This bet has done us well so I will continue with it!

Happy Friday!

2 years ago | [YT] | 3

The Nerdy Ghambler

Best Bets today:

1. Suns +3.5 at Heat (-110 Caesars)
2. Victor Wembanyama (spurs) 25+ (-130 ESPNBet)
3. Luka Doncic (Mavericks) u38.5 points (-130 ESPNBet)
4. Khris Middleton (Bucks) o26.5 points, rebounds, and assists (-120 Bet365)

heres why:

1. Suns +3.5 at Heat (-110 Caesars)

The suns are winners of 7 games in their last 9. The heat meanwhile have been the number one most dissapointing team recently. They have lost 6 straight games! These two teams played each other on January 5th and the suns won by 16 so I love them with plus points tbh I like them to win straight up.


2. Victor Wembanyama (spurs) 25+ (-130 ESPNBet)

Wemby is on fire recently, additionally he gets the joy of being a center who plays the wizards today. Washington has been consitently the worst team gaurding centers in almost every important category and yes that includes points and points per game. In his last 26 Wemby is averaging 26 and seeing a little more command of the offense.


3. Luka Doncic (Mavericks) u38.5 points (-130 ESPNBet)

Scariest play but I love it. Insane to think someones line is 38.5 points. In his last 9 games Luka is under this line 7 times! He is averaging an impressive 34 ppg this year but thats still very well below 38.5. Additionally despite playing 35+ minutes in the only game vs Orlando this year he had 29 points.


4. Khris Middleton (Bucks) o26.5 points, rebounds, and assists (-120 Bet365)

Middleton is finally vibing again. He gets an extra rest day yesterday also. Vs the Nuggets today he should draw the easist matchup between him gordon and giannis. He is over in 4 games outta 5 verse Denver and his one miss was on the hook for 26. He is averaging 27 pra in his last ten games but he is over in 3 straight games averaging 31 PRA in that time span!

2 years ago | [YT] | 5

The Nerdy Ghambler

We are 14-4 betting the NFL playoffs going 6-2 in both weekends so far. Today there are only 2 games but I still got my 4 best bets for them!

1. Patrick Mahomes o12.5 longest run (+100 ESPNBet)
2. Harrison Butker 2+ FGs made (-105 ESPNBet)
3. Lamar Jackson o16.5 longest run (-115 Bet365)
4. Jared Goff o256.5 pass yards (-110 FanDuel)

heres why:

1. Patrick Mahomes o12.5 longest run (+100 ESPNBet)

We have made money all year betting QB overs for longest rush including both the qbs in this one. Mahomes always passes his rush lines in big games, for example the super bowl last year on a hurt ankle he crushed this. In both playoff games this year he crushed this. The ravens defense will be all over chiefs receivers and the line will be getting after mahomes. all perfect for some good scrambles.


2. Harrison Butker 2+ FGs made (-105 ESPNBet)

If you dont have this bet or cant find it just do his over 6.5 points which we hit many times this year including last week. Butker is a solid 12 of 18 to this line this year. More importantly he has it in 4 straight and the ravens defense will likely bend and not break today vs the chiefs which is perfect for some FGs to get him to the over in 5 straight!


3. Lamar Jackson o16.5 longest run (-115 Bet365)

Lamar soared over this line last week when we took it. The chiefs should have good pass coverage will there big guys get to lamar which is ideal for qb runs. He has hit this line in 4 straight games and while he is on the sideline watching mahomes run around he will come out and do everything he can do to prove himself the best.


4. Jared Goff o256.5 pass yards (-110 FanDuel)

Lions will likely be trailing most of this game so Goff will be throwing. Which is fine with me and the Lions to since he is over this line in 6 straight games including crushing it in both the playoff games. I expect him to be leving it all out on the field like never before today and the weapons around him are excellent and going against a bit of an underperforming pass defense in the niners this year.

Great games today! Happy Sunday!

2 years ago (edited) | [YT] | 3

The Nerdy Ghambler

Quickly, 3 Best Bets Tonight:

1. Paul George (Clippers) o22.5 points (-115 Fanduel)
2. Phoenix Suns -3.5 at Indiana Pacers (-130 ESPNBet)
3. Devin Vassell (spurs) o17.5 points (-130 ESPNBet)

here is why and what numbers I would play them up to:

1. Paul George (Clippers) o22.5 points (-115 Fanduel)

Mr. George has made us good money this year and him and his excellent team have usually been able to fly under the radar so far this year. Earlier this year in a Clippers win, he scored 29 points easily. In fact, in his last 3 games vs Toronto he has gone over this line in all 3. PG has been playing stellar recently averaging almost 26 points per game throughout his last 10 games.


2. Phoenix Suns -3.5 at Indiana Pacers (-130 ESPNBet)

The hottest team in the NBA made us money just two days ago on a spread pick when they came through and beat the Mavs by a million. The Mavs, a team very similar to the Pacers. The suns can go in a shootout verse anybody, especially against a Pacers squad missing their top scorer and assist man Tyrese Haliburton. The pacers are a rough 2-6 through their last 8 games. The Suns, meanwhile, are winners of 7 straight games being indifferent to play at home or away from it. I would play this at 4.5.


3. Devin Vassell (spurs) o17.5 points (-130 ESPNBet)

A very talented player often over looked becuase his team is awful and over looked even more since the 7'4 sensation Wembanyama is on it. Vassell has been playing very well recently and is over this line in 4 of his last 5. In 2 games vs Portland (another terrible team) he has averaged 20. A similar number to the 20.2 ppg he averages at home. I would play this line to 18.5.

As you should always do, enjoy the weekend and lets begin by making some bar money

2 years ago (edited) | [YT] | 3

The Nerdy Ghambler

Make last night the 5th day in the last 6 that we have made money. A 15-6 run making us right over 71% of the time, good for 6% better than the 65% correctness rate that marks a bettors best year of their career typically.

2-1 yesterday hitting our 2 unit/ladder day 1 bet so more like a 3-1 day! Missed a clean sweep by a last second miss by Tyler Herro but thats alright.

4 more Bets tonight including another best bet aka ladder day 2!

1. 76ers -4.5 at Pacers (-120 Fanduel/ESPNBet)
2. Donte DiVincenzo o11.5 points (-130ESPNBet)
3. Timberwolves -2.5 at Nets (-130 Fanduel/ESPNBet)
4. SGP Nikola Jokic (-106 Fanduel)
a. 25+ points
b. 8+ rebounds
c. 6+ assists

heres why:

1. 76ers -4.5 at Pacers (-120 Fanduel/ESPNBet)

These are two good teams going in the oppositte direction. the 76ers are defeinitely the better team overall and on the season but the pacers are a good squad but recently without Haliburton they have been struggling. The indiana points and assists leader is once again not able to play due to injury. In their last 6 games the pacers have only 1 win and playing at home hasnt made any noticable difference. Phili on the other hand has won 6 straight games and in my opinion is the second hottest team in the league behind the suns who made us good money last night. Top off with Embiid at the peak of powers andd give me the 76ers to cover as the away team, a role they have conquered well all season so far.


2. Donte DiVincenzo o11.5 points (-130ESPNBet)

The Italian is averaging 14 points per game in his last 10 games if you remove one of his games the got cut widely short. He has covered this line in an excellent 6 of his last 7 games. Iv'e seen him play these past few games and he is playing excellently which is good news for the Knicks since they have a very difficult task taking on the Nuggetts in MSG tonight.


3. 2 UNIT/LADDER DAY 2: Timberwolves -2.5 at Nets (-130 Fanduel/ESPNBet)

My favorite bet tonight, last night when I found this line it was at -4.5. Iv'e checked the injury report and i see no reason other than people betting the nets (which is always terrifying thing to think of) that this line should have shrank to -2.5. The nets are an awful 2-11 in their last 13 games, they are 4-16 in the last 20. The timberpups on the other hand are #1 in their division and #2 in the league with a strong 31-13 record. So this is the #2 team in the NBA vs the #24 team. Thats out of 30 by the way. We have made moeny time and time again betting against the nets and its best play mikal bridges. It always makes me a little sad to bet a player or team to fail but this year it has made significant money for the channel and I will continue to drown my sorrows in cash!

I would wait and check the injury report for the wolves close to this 7.30 pm est start time but as of 2.30 there are non reported for Minnesota and I am already in for double!

4. SGP Nikola Jokic (-106 Fanduel)
a. 25+ points
b. 8+ rebounds
c. 6+ assists

Another player we have bet very well this year including betting correctly twice to record a triple double. This game I think may be a little to slow for that so I will take this parlay instead as Jokic tries to claw back into the top MVP spot of the league after Embiid's 70 points outburst this week. He averages 28 ppg in his last 10 and has hit this line in 7 straight games (9-1 in last 10). He averages 12 rebounds a game and has hit the 8+ line in 7 straight games (16 times in the last 18). Finally, he is averaging 9 assists per game this year and once again in 7 straight games ( A hilarious 21 times in the last 22 games)

That does it for me as we continue a very good start to 2024!
Happy Friday Eve!

2 years ago (edited) | [YT] | 6

The Nerdy Ghambler

Another winning day! That makes 4 in the last 5 days money makers. Moving the streak to 12 and 5 aka 71% which is 6% higher than action network calls the best winning percentage year a better can have throughout thier whole bet career. Todays slate is tricky again as injuries and trades shake up the NBA but that can often work in our non computer favor!

Todays 3 Best Bets:

1. Phonix Suns -1.5 at Dallas Mavericks (-125 ESPNBet)
2. Tyler Herro (Heat) o20.5 points (-120 Bet365)
3. Damian Lilliard (Bucks) o32.5 points, rebounds, and assists (-122 Fanduel)

heres why:

1. 2 UNITS-Phoniex Suns -1.5 at Dallas Mavericks (-125 ESPNBet)

playable for 1 unit up to 6.5
The suns have their big 3 of bradley beal, devin booker, and kevin durant healthy and are the hottest team in the league at the moment, having won 6 straight games always covering this line. The Mavs on the other hand have stumbled a bit and lost 3 of their last 4. Tonight, they have listed Luka Doncic, Kyrie Irving, Dante Exum, and Seth Curry as game time decisions as they all deal with injuries. That is essentially all of their scoring gone while the powerhouse of the suns come in clicking on all cylinders! Make it a double unit play if you want or make it a day 1 in a ladder challenge either way this is my favorite bet tonight!


2. Tyler Herro (Heat) o20.5 points (-120 Bet365)

playable at 21.5
Herro loves to play the grizzlies. He is over this line in 4 of his last 5 games verse them and only missed the 1 game because he got hurt 8 minutes in but already had 6 points and was certainly on his way to going over this line again. The heat have 3 gaurds who will likely not play tonight, including new acquisition scary terry rozier leaving much room for Herro to get points and minutes. In his last 24 games Herro has hit this lines over in 17 games and in 9 of 11 at home. Herro has not gone back to back under this line all season (6-0).


3. Damian Lilliard (Bucks) o32.5 points, rebounds, and assists (-122 Fanduel)

playable up to 36.5
An excellent 3rd game of the cavs vs bucks tonight where Doc Rivers comes in as his first game as bucks coach. The last coach was fired since the teams defense had continuable been getting worse summitting in a 40 point beating by these cavaliers just 3 games ago. The second and equally important reason was the old head coaches poor use of damian lilliard a mistake doc wont make especially vs Cleveland. dame is averaging 37 PRAs per game this season and 35 PRAs in his last 10. Dame has covered this line in points in his career countless times and could certainly do that tonight but he will also have the help of adding his rebounds and assists to his total!

Thats all for today, have a good rest of your midweek and enjoy tonights fun NBA slate with that cavs and bucks game as well chet holmgren vs victor wembanyama pt 2!

2 years ago (edited) | [YT] | 5

The Nerdy Ghambler

1-2 yesterday moving aour streak to 10-4 which is still very solid, remembering 53% correctness over time is profitable in gambling with 65% being the absolute best gambling year usually. But the 2 misses were close to cashing especially the suns game. Hard to hit Gobert's over when KAT goes for 62! Wembys line hits even though he let embiid drop 70!

weird injury type slate today, 3 Bets none the less:

1. Buddy Hield (Pacers) o13.5 (-118 Fanduel)
2. Knicks -3.5 at Nets (-118 Fanduel)
3. Anthony Davis under 40.5 points+rebounds (-115 Fanduel, Bet365)

heres why:

1. Buddy Hield (Pacers) o13.5 (-118 Fanduel)

In his one game vs Denver Hield put up 16 points and recently the pacers said Haliburton is out for the next 3 games extending his absence that hield has done well in. He is over in 7 of his last 10 and scored 18 in both games since Haliburton got injured in. This game should remain close due to both teams being banged up but the Pacers are finally back home after 5 straight away games where they meet the Nuggets who come in on their fourth straight away game!

2. Knicks -3.5 at Nets (-118 Fanduel)

The Knicks own the Nets and playing them is nearly a home game. Knicks won both games last year and won the first matchup this year by 19 and it was not even that close really. New York is also very slept on in my opinion, they are 9-2 in their last 11 games and havent had to travel in four games aka they are rested and relaxed as could be mid season nba. The Nets howver are having another dissapointing season and we have cashed on Mikal Bridges unders often this year. His team has lost 15 of the last 18. I see another Knicks domination like game one was this year, feels bad for the Nets but oh well!


3. Anthony Davis under 40.5 points+rebounds (-115 Fanduel, Bet365)

This may scare some people but AD is one of the best people to bet unders on because he fragile and hits unders from injuries OFTEN. In fact he enters this game with a reported injury from last night. He should still play today but he has achillies tendinopathy in both feet. Not sure what that is but yikes sounds awful. Outside of this, he is averaging 37 PRs this year and in his last ten that number is slightly down to 36. He has played the clippers twice this year and averaged 34 PRs going under by 7 which is excellent for us. I'm taking this under instead of some other stats combo or points under because it hits more often. He is under this line in 8 of his last 10 and in 13-5 to it in his last 18. I just googled achillies tendonopathy and it is from overuse and the best treatment is simply rest which hopefully AD gets plenty of and feels better soon. Like Wednesday or Thursday!

weird tricky slate tonight but I'll try my hand at it!

2 years ago | [YT] | 5