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Hey everyone - well that escalated quickly. Sinlaku exploded into a monster cat 5 and is currently on track to impact the islands of Saipan and Tinian in the next 30 hours or so.

I had a plan in place to cover the typhoon from Saipan but it was derailed by the airline canceling my flight only a few hours before departure so I'm running a live tracking stream instead.

1 month ago | [YT] | 2

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Typhoon Sinlaku is starting to crank, well on its way to major typhoon status (category 3+.) I have some tough decisions to make now, which island to target…

More updates to come.

Image via CylonicWX

1 month ago | [YT] | 52

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Narelle is an absolute beast now, a category 5 on the Australian scale and due to crash into Far Northern Queensland in the next 24 hours. You can see the really deep convection surrounding an eye that's clearing out and becoming well defined. The small community of Coen could be in the direct firing line tomorrow morning.

Image below is via TropicalTidbits

2 months ago (edited) | [YT] | 53

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Things are heating up in the southern hemisphere!

The BoM has issued warnings for a developing cyclone in the Coral Sea, with landfall expected in Far North Queensland in around three days.

Conditions look favourable for further strengthening, and the system could reach around 80 knots (150 km/h) — a solid Category 3 on the Australian scale (roughly equivalent to a Category 2 hurricane or typhoon on the Saffir–Simpson scale).

I’ll be keeping a close eye on how this develops over the coming days.

2 months ago | [YT] | 22

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The medium range ensembles, the tools I use to help sniff out future tropical threats, are tickling Christmas now and it's with increasingly confidence I can say we're most likely done for the year in terms of tropical storms and typhoons. Yes, we've seen Christmas typhoons in the past, however per the image below and other sources, plus the rapid climatological slow down we get at this time of year, I think the season is drawing to a close.




It's been a messy year of low quality junk systems causing chaos and destruction upon landfall primarily due to the heavy rains they've unleashed. Hopefully now everyone can catch a break and not have to worry about the weather for a few months. How's the season been in your area? Were you affected by any of the 34(!?) systems that the JTWC warned on this year in the western Pacific?




Image below via WeatherModels

5 months ago | [YT] | 26

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Sunrise over tropical depression Verbena. Almost the entirety of the Philippines is within the circulation this large and sprawling system. Unfortunately it's taking its time to move across the country and dumping heavy rainfall in many areas. In addition to the flood and landslide threat, PHIVOLCS have issued lahar advisories for both Kanlaon and Mayon volcanoes.



A lahar is a fast-moving river of ash, rocks and debris that flows down the slopes of a volcano during periods of heavy rain (they can also my triggered by snowmelt, crater lake bursts etc.) Lahars can travel for many kilometers, wiping out everything in their path and are one of the most destructive volcanic hazards.

Back to Verbena - it's expected to intensify over the open ocean once it moves further west. Folks in Vietnam need to keep an eye on it but climatology and model guidance suggests if it does make landfall there it will be a weak system.


Stay safe everyone! (Image via JMA) See less

6 months ago | [YT] | 62

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Sunrise over tropical depression Verbena. Almost the entirety of the Philippines is within the circulation this large and sprawling system. Unfortunately it's taking its time to move across the country and dumping heavy rainfall in many areas. In addition to the flood and landslide threat, PHIVOLCS have issued lahar advisories for both Kanlaon and Mayon volcanoes.



A lahar is a fast-moving river of ash, rocks and debris that flows down the slopes of a volcano during periods of heavy rain (they can also my triggered by snowmelt, crater lake bursts etc.) Lahars can travel for many kilometers, wiping out everything in their path and are one of the most destructive volcanic hazards.

Back to Verbena - it's expected to intensify over the open ocean once it moves further west. Folks in Vietnam need to keep an eye on it but climatology and model guidance suggests if it does make landfall there it will be a weak system.


Stay safe everyone! (Image via JMA) See less

6 months ago | [YT] | 38

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The Australian cyclone season is off to an early start - the Bureau of Meteorology has issued its first warning for tropical low 02U which is expected to intensify into a category 2 (Aus scale) before making landfall over the North Territory in around 4 days from now. There's a fair amount of uncertainty with this one given the tricky steering flow and small size of the system - if you live in the Top End keep an eye on the forecast over the next couple of days!

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6 months ago | [YT] | 39

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Godzilla Island looking beautiful this afternoon, if you know, you know! 😉

6 months ago | [YT] | 51

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“Not sure when I’ll be home,” is never the ideal farewell to my wife and kids. Starting the long trek south with a 2hr train ride to Tokyo then on to Narita airport.

I’m concerned TS Kalmaegi could become a strong typhoon with the potential for rapid intensification prior to landfall. And then maybe another typhoon somewhere afterward. But one step at time - first goal is to get to Manila tonight.

6 months ago | [YT] | 68