Uk Storm Chaser Liam
I am a storm chasers from Devon, UK and sometimes rarely I go out of county to chase round the midlands and other area in the UK. It has always been a dream of mine to move to the USA and chases there. I have always had an obsession with weather and natural disasters both the sceptical that they create but also how to prevent peoples life's from being destroyed and/or ruined by these events of nature!
Goal: is to capture every weather event that happens near me in the UK!
Uk Storm Chaser Liam
WE IN THE HUNDREDS YALL!!!! tysm
1 day ago (edited) | [YT] | 3
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Uk Storm Chaser Liam
MesoCast has issued a Slight (Active) Risk for Scotland, with the potential for some isolated flooding. This carries a 30–45% chance within a 25-mile radius. They have also issued multiple Low (Conditional) Risk areas across central to southern parts of the UK, where heavy downpours and weak thunderstorms are possible, although the chance of these occurring is only 15–30% within a 25-mile radius.
ESSL is warning of a very small chance (10–15% within a 25-mile radius) of hail up to 2 cm in diameter, along with a 50–75% chance of lightning. Some small areas also have a greater than 75% chance of lightning.
EDIT: they have hatched the slight risk with a marginal severe polygon
MesoCast: mesocast.uk/
ESSL: stormforecast.eu/
3 days ago (edited) | [YT] | 1
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Uk Storm Chaser Liam
We are so close away from triple digits (100+) This time last month I was on 20 thank you so much for the support!
1 week ago | [YT] | 5
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Uk Storm Chaser Liam
MesoCast has upgraded the risk level to V-HIGH (Very High), which is the highest and rarest category that an outlook can receive.
Along with this upgrade, a Level 3 Severe Hatched Area has been issued, including a 5% tornado risk, 15% wind risk, 30% hail risk, and 30% flood risk.
Under this risk, a few strong to violent thunderstorms could develop into supercells, which are large rotating storms capable of producing severe weather. With these storms, isolated tornadoes are possible, along with a significant hail threat. Hailstones are estimated to range between 3–6 cm (1.2–2.4 inches) in diameter.
As heavy rainfall drags air downward, a moderate wind threat is also expected, with wind gusts exceeding 55 mph likely within the strongest storms. In addition, frequent to destructive lightning is expected.
A substantial flash flood risk has also been highlighted due to extreme rainfall rates of 2 inches (50 mm) or more per hour. Combined with large hail and intense downpours, significant amounts of water could accumulate in a short period of time, leading to rapid flooding.
MesoCast: mesocast.uk/
2 weeks ago | [YT] | 2
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Uk Storm Chaser Liam
THE ESSL OUTLOOK IS OUT for both the 25th and 26th June High Risks (MesoCast).
For 25 June, a huge area of significant hail potential has been highlighted. The ESSL indicates a 60–80% chance of seeing hail 2 cm or larger within a 25-mile radius of any given point in the red-to-maroon shaded area. In addition, another area shows a 20% chance of seeing hail 5 cm or larger within a 25-mile radius.
Storms on the 25th are expected to begin developing between 1 PM and 7 PM, with peak storm intensity currently estimated between 7 PM on the 25th and 1 AM on the 26th.
However, for the 26 June High Risk, the outlook suggests a slightly weaker event, though it remains a serious concern. A 15–40% chance of hail 2 cm or larger within a 25-mile radius is indicated in the blue-shaded area, while the hatched area shows a 5% chance of hail 5 cm or larger.
This remains a significant severe weather threat. Just because the 26th's risk is not as strong as the 25th's does not mean that strong or potentially life-threatening storms cannot occur. Large hail, damaging winds, flash flooding, frequent lightning, and isolated tornadoes may still be possible.
That's all for now. I wish everyone the very best with the storms tomorrow and the day after.
ESSL: stormforecast.eu/
MesoCast: mesocast.uk/
2 weeks ago (edited) | [YT] | 0
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Uk Storm Chaser Liam
A HUGE TWO-DAY HIGH RISK has been issued by MesoCast, as Thursday's High Risk on 25 June is expected to carry over into Friday, 26 June.
This is a major event because not only is it the first-ever MesoCast High Risk since forecasting began on 25 March 2026, but it is also a two-day High Risk, which is incredibly rare.
For Friday's High Risk, you can expect conditions similar to Thursday's outbreak, including large hail (1–5 cm), damaging winds, flash flooding, and the potential for a few short-lived, isolated tornadoes. In addition, temperatures are expected to be extremely hot, ranging from 30–38°C.
At this time, it is difficult to say exactly when Friday's severe weather will begin, as a detailed discussion for Friday has not yet been issued. Thursday's outbreak is currently expected to develop between 2 PM and 9 PM.
The ESSL 24-hour outlook should be released soon, provided their servers are up and running. Once the outlook is available, we should have a much clearer picture of the expected impacts and timing.
That's all for now. Love you all, and stay safe!
MesoCast: mesocast.uk/
ESSL: stormforecast.eu/
2 weeks ago | [YT] | 0
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Uk Storm Chaser Liam
MesoCast has issued a High Risk for the first time ever, as a large severe weather outbreak is expected on 25 June 2026 during the early evening through to the early morning hours.
The High Risk area covers portions of Ireland and Scotland, along with a severe hail zone where hailstones up to 6 cm in diameter are possible, although this is not considered very likely. Hail sizes of 1–5 cm are expected to be more common.
In addition, there is a significant risk of flash flooding, damaging winds, and very frequent lightning. There is also the potential for a few quick, short-lived tornadoes. These storms are expected to be strong and could become life-threatening in some areas.
MesoCast is also considering adding a second High Risk polygon, meaning a rare double High Risk scenario could be issued.
I have not been able to have access to the 3 or even 24hr ESSL outlook as it seems there servers are down we will see later though however I do have access to the outdated ones!!
Handry's HOCCO outlook is signalling 95%< lightning risk per 25 mile radius of the cost of Scotland and Ireland and I feel this event should be taken seriously as on the 22ed multiple houses were set on fire due to the lightning. This is all I have for now stay safe yall!!
MesoCast: mesocast.uk/
ESSL: stormforecast.eu/
HANDRY: handryoutlook.wixsite.com/website
AS I WAS MAKING THIS POST HANDRY HAS UPDRADED THERE RISK FROM A MDT(moderate) TO A HIGH AS SEVERE WEATHER IS BECOMING MORE LIKELY AND THIS EVENT IS BECOMING MORE VIVID!!
2 weeks ago | [YT] | 1
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Uk Storm Chaser Liam
A large and potentially dangerous severe weather outbreak is expected to develop on Thursday, 25 June 2026, across Northern Ireland and northern-Western Scotland. The Handry Outlook has issued two severe hatched areas, indicating the potential for severe or even damaging thunderstorms.
Current model guidance suggests severe storms may develop from the early evening through to early morning on Tuesday. Potential hazards include 2–5 cm diameter hail, an enhanced tornado risk, flash flooding, and damaging winds.
As this is still a Day 3 outlook, details are likely to change as confidence increases and newer model runs become available. When the 24-hour ESSL outlook for 25 June is released, I will be able to provide more detailed information.
At present, both Handry and Mesocast have issued Moderate Risks for 25 June. Additionally, Handry's automated HOCCO outlook is indicating lightning probabilities of around 85–90% within a 25-mile radius within some select areas.
MESOCAST: mesocast.uk/
HANDRY: handryoutlook.wixsite.com/website
ESSL: stormforecast.eu/
Could this be the day the first MesoCast High risk is issued?!? 🫣🫣
2 weeks ago (edited) | [YT] | 1
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Uk Storm Chaser Liam
Two moderate risks have been issued for Day 3 (25 June) by MesoCast (mesocast.uk/) due to the potential for severe weather across England, Scotland, and parts of Ireland. No discussion has been released yet, and no severe hatched area has been outlined. Soon, I will have access to the 24hr-ESSL (stormforecast.eu/) outlook, which will provide details on hail and lightning potential. For now, I only have access to the 3-hour outlook by the ESSL, so there is not much more information available at this stage.
2 weeks ago | [YT] | 3
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Uk Storm Chaser Liam
Handry (handryoutlook.wixsite.com/website) has issued a MODERATE risk for today the 22ed June 2026 for severe thunderstorms confidence is still low as MesoCast (mesocast.uk/interactive-map/?d=1) has downgraded there MDT risk to a SLGT
3 weeks ago | [YT] | 0
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